Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.014521 0.016422 0.018495 0.020924 0.023697 0.026766 0.030427
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011704 0.014335 0.017454 0.021437 0.026402 0.032411 0.040267
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009857 0.012723 0.016314 0.021167 0.027590 0.035846 0.047343
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008578 0.011552 0.015451 0.020971 0.028644 0.039016 0.054237
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007610 0.010628 0.014741 0.020804 0.029597 0.042013 0.061099
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007044 0.010167 0.014575 0.021316 0.031480 0.046424 0.070400
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006374 0.009472 0.013981 0.021107 0.032233 0.049191 0.077473
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006037 0.009223 0.014001 0.021792 0.034372 0.054228 0.088612
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005419 0.008480 0.013193 0.021088 0.034220 0.055595 0.093861
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.004964 0.007948 0.012655 0.020752 0.034602 0.057824 0.100750
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004477 0.007319 0.011903 0.019980 0.034157 0.058584 0.105097
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004323 0.007223 0.012013 0.020665 0.036273 0.063952 0.118346
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004141 0.007071 0.012023 0.021198 0.038207 0.069258 0.132250
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003964 0.006911 0.012008 0.021684 0.040109 0.074713 0.147146
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003686 0.006550 0.011605 0.021414 0.040551 0.077431 0.156869
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003447 0.006237 0.011259 0.021216 0.041101 0.080398 0.167432
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003234 0.005954 0.010945 0.021046 0.041682 0.083467 0.178563
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003128 0.005863 0.010982 0.021564 0.043699 0.089670 0.197301
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002941 0.005602 0.010671 0.021353 0.044176 0.092675 0.209192
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002873 0.005568 0.010797 0.022046 0.046637 0.100199 0.232508
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002656 0.005221 0.010275 0.021334 0.045970 0.100741 0.239210
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002496 0.004976 0.009942 0.020994 0.046090 0.103059 0.250528
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.002305 0.004654 0.009425 0.020212 0.045135 0.102798 0.255324